FairValue

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Abraham

Marcus

RWNigeria · CF Estrela Amadora

№ 699632Emerging €2.8M −1.05

Player dossierLiga Portugal

AbrahamMarcus

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
CF Estrela Amadora
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Nigeria
Age
26
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Marcus at €1M. Model A, which never saw Marcus during training, estimates €2.8M: the market value is 65% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.85. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.05A €2.8M▼ −1.03B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
2,576
Goals
5
Assists
5
Started
30/31
Min / app
83
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Marcus…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €2.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Abraham Marcus's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 29th, Assists per 90 60th, Minutes, two years 58th, Starts 99th, Minutes, last 365 days 88th, European club minutes 28th29thGoals60thAssists58thMinutes99thStarts88thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

97% this player59% attacker median99th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€2M
May 2021
Peak
€2M
May 2021
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
11
4 club changes
May 2026€1MCF Estrela AmadoraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, CF Estrela Amadora. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-05-21€2MCD Feirense
2021-12-27€1.5MPortimonense SAD
2022-06-14€1.2MRadomiak Radom
2022-12-28€1.2MFC Porto B
2023-06-28€1.2MFC Porto B
2023-12-14€1.2MFC Porto B
2024-06-20€1MFC Porto B
2024-12-16€800kFC Porto B
2025-06-23€600kFC Porto B
2025-12-18€800kCF Estrela Amadora
2026-05-28€1MCF Estrela Amadora

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.046

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 42% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 29% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Marcus appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).