FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Aleksandr

Koryakin

GKRussia · FC Krasnodar

№ 687463Emerging €686k +0.09

Player dossierPremier Liga

AleksandrKoryakin

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
FC Krasnodar
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
24
Height
190 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Koryakin at €750k. Model A, which never saw Koryakin during training, estimates €686k: the market value is 9% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €679k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.09A €686k▲ +0.10B €679k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
7
Minutes
630
Started
7/7
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Koryakin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €750k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €750kModel A €686k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Aleksandr Koryakin's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 8th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 32nd8thMinutes62ndStarts26thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jun 2020
Peak
€750k
Dec 2025
Model target
€750k
May 2026
Valuations
14
4 club changes
May 2026€750kFC KrasnodarValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €750k, FC Krasnodar. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-06-29€25kLokomotiv Moscow II
2021-06-02€50kLokomotiv Moscow II
2021-12-03€175kLokomotiv-Kazanka Moscow
2022-06-13€150kLokomotiv-Kazanka Moscow
2022-12-08€150kBaltika Kaliningrad
2023-06-19€100kBaltika Kaliningrad
2023-12-13€100kBaltika Kaliningrad
2024-06-14€250kRodina Moscow
2024-09-18€300kRodina Moscow
2024-12-04€350kRodina Moscow
2025-06-02€450kRodina Moscow
2025-09-18€600kFC Krasnodar
2025-12-16€750kFC Krasnodar
2026-05-26€750kFC Krasnodar

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.090

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 29% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 38% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Koryakin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).