João
Neves
CMPortugal · Paris Saint-Germain
Photo: Bryan Berlin / WikiPortraits, CC BY-SA 4.0 (background removed)
Player dossierLigue 1
JoãoNeves
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Paris Saint-Germain
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 21
- Height
- 171 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Ligue 1Reading the valuation
The market values Neves at €140M. Model A, which never saw Neves during training, estimates €57.5M: the market value is 143% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.43. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €43.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 89
- Minutes
- 6,269
- Goals
- 13
- Assists
- 14
- Started
- 71/89
- Min / app
- 70
- Cards
- 5Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Neves…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €140M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
47% this player0% midfielder median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €400k
- Jun 2022
- Peak
- €140M
- Jun 2026
- Model target
- €140M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 14
- 3 club changes
Jun 2026: €140M, Paris Saint-Germain. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-27 | €400k | SL Benfica U19 |
| 2022-12-28 | €500k | SL Benfica B |
| 2023-03-02 | €2.5M | SL Benfica |
| 2023-06-16 | €10M | SL Benfica |
| 2023-09-29 | €20M | SL Benfica |
| 2023-12-27 | €45M | SL Benfica |
| 2024-06-06 | €55M | SL Benfica |
| 2024-10-07 | €60M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2024-12-10 | €60M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2025-03-24 | €65M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2025-06-03 | €80M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2025-10-10 | €90M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2025-12-15 | €110M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2026-06-01 | €140M | Paris Saint-Germain |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.890
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
The joint highest observed value among 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Joint 2nd highest observed value among 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Neves appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- VitinhaDMParis Saint-Germain · Ligue 1€140M
- KvaratskheliaLWParis Saint-Germain · Ligue 1€140M
- DouéRWParis Saint-Germain · Ligue 1€120M
- DembéléCFParis Saint-Germain · Ligue 1€100M
- PedriCMFC Barcelona · midfielders€150M
- BellinghamAMReal Madrid · midfielders€130M
- RiceCMArsenal FC · midfielders€120M
- SzoboszlaiAMLiverpool FC · midfielders€100M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).