FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Dominik Szoboszlai

Dominik

Szoboszlai

AMHungary · Liverpool FC

№ 451276World Class €78.4M +0.24

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

DominikSzoboszlai

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Liverpool FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Hungary
Age
25
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Szoboszlai at €100M. Model A, which never saw Szoboszlai during training, estimates €78.4M: the market value is 28% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €68.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.24A €78.4M▲ +0.38B €68.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
99
Minutes
7,915
Goals
20
Assists
21
Started
90/99
Min / app
80
Cards
16Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Szoboszlai…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €100M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €100MModel A €78.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dominik Szoboszlai's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 87th, Assists per 90 91st, Minutes, two years 99th, Starts 88th, Minutes, last 365 days 100th, European club minutes 86th87thGoals91stAssists99thMinutes88thStarts100thRecent86thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

4,736 this player1,541 midfielder median100th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jul 2017
Peak
€100M
Mar 2026
Model target
€100M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
3 club changes
Jun 2026€100MLiverpool FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €100M, Liverpool FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-02€200kFC Liefering
2017-08-12€400kFC Liefering
2017-12-13€500kFC Liefering
2018-06-14€1MRed Bull Salzburg
2018-12-19€2MRed Bull Salzburg
2019-04-15€5MRed Bull Salzburg
2019-06-03€12MRed Bull Salzburg
2019-12-16€15MRed Bull Salzburg
2020-04-08€13.5MRed Bull Salzburg
2020-07-22€25MRed Bull Salzburg
2020-12-21€25MRed Bull Salzburg
2021-06-01€25MRB Leipzig
2021-12-22€28MRB Leipzig
2022-06-09€28MRB Leipzig
2022-11-09€35MRB Leipzig
2023-03-29€40MRB Leipzig
2023-06-22€50MRB Leipzig
2023-10-09€70MLiverpool FC
2023-12-19€75MLiverpool FC
2024-05-27€75MLiverpool FC
2024-12-16€75MLiverpool FC
2025-03-18€80MLiverpool FC
2025-05-30€80MLiverpool FC
2025-10-17€85MLiverpool FC
2025-12-09€85MLiverpool FC
2026-03-09€100MLiverpool FC
2026-06-03€100MLiverpool FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.243

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Joint 4th highest observed value among 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€100MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Joint 6th highest observed value among 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€100MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Szoboszlai appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).