Jude

Bellingham

AMEngland · Real Madrid

№ 581678World Class €104M +0.23

Photo: Bryan Berlin / WikiPortraits, CC BY-SA 4.0 (background removed)

Player dossierLaLiga

JudeBellingham

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club: Real Madrid
League: LaLiga
Nationality: England
Age: 22
Height: 186 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bellingham at €130M. Model A, which never saw Bellingham during training, estimates €104M: the market value is 25% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.25. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €63.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 97
Minutes: 7,423
Goals: 23
Assists: 20
Started: 84/97
Min / app: 77
Cards: 18Y 2R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bellingham…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €130M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,423 this player2,607 midfielder median99th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €2.5M; Oct 2019
Peak: €180M; Dec 2023
Model target: €130M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 22; 2 club changes

Jun 2026€130MReal MadridValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €130M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2019-10-17	€2.5M	Birmingham City
2020-02-27	€12M	Birmingham City
2020-04-08	€11M	Birmingham City
2020-09-16	€27M	Borussia Dortmund
2021-02-10	€35M	Borussia Dortmund
2021-05-28	€55M	Borussia Dortmund
2021-10-07	€70M	Borussia Dortmund
2021-12-22	€75M	Borussia Dortmund
2022-06-09	€80M	Borussia Dortmund
2022-09-21	€90M	Borussia Dortmund
2022-11-09	€100M	Borussia Dortmund
2022-12-23	€110M	Borussia Dortmund
2023-03-29	€120M	Borussia Dortmund
2023-06-22	€120M	Borussia Dortmund
2023-10-13	€150M	Real Madrid
2023-12-22	€180M	Real Madrid
2024-06-07	€180M	Real Madrid
2024-12-27	€180M	Real Madrid
2025-06-09	€180M	Real Madrid
2025-12-12	€160M	Real Madrid
2026-03-16	€140M	Real Madrid
2026-06-05	€130M	Real Madrid

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.227

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

5th highest observed value among 509 LaLiga players.

See them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

4th highest observed value among 1,687 midfielders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Bellingham appears

TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).