Kai
Fotheringham
RWScotland · St. Johnstone FC
Player dossierPremiership
KaiFotheringham
RWRight WingerAttack
- Club
- St. Johnstone FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Scotland
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 169 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 10 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Fotheringham at €350k. Model A, which never saw Fotheringham during training, estimates €540k: the market value is 35% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.54. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 20
- Minutes
- 677
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 6/20
- Min / app
- 34
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fotheringham…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €350k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
5% this player0% attacker median63rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Jan 2021
- Peak
- €375k
- Jun 2024
- Model target
- €350k
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 12
- 1 club change
Dec 2025: €350k, St. Johnstone FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-18 | €50k | Dundee United FC |
| 2021-06-28 | €75k | Dundee United FC |
| 2021-12-31 | €100k | Dundee United FC |
| 2022-06-27 | €100k | Dundee United FC |
| 2023-03-22 | €200k | Dundee United FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €200k | Dundee United FC |
| 2023-12-05 | €350k | Dundee United FC |
| 2024-06-21 | €375k | Dundee United FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €375k | Dundee United FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €375k | Dundee United FC |
| 2025-10-09 | €350k | St. Johnstone FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €350k | St. Johnstone FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.433
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 45% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 10% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Fotheringham appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- McCartCBHeart of Midlothian FC · Premiership€350k
- LyonsCMKilmarnock FC · Premiership€350k
- NlunduluCFSt. Mirren FC · Premiership€350k
- Schjönning-LarsenLBKilmarnock FC · Premiership€350k
- SagalLWAE Larisa · attackers€350k
- DeleticRWPOT Iraklis Thessaloniki · attackers€350k
- MbenzaRWRoyal Charleroi SC · attackers€350k
- SandeCFSC Cambuur Leeuwarden · attackers€350k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).