FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Javi

Rueda

RBSpain · Celta de Vigo

№ 652331Established €9.9M −0.50

Player dossierLaLiga

JaviRueda

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Celta de Vigo
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
24
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rueda at €6M. Model A, which never saw Rueda during training, estimates €9.9M: the market value is 39% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.65. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.50A €9.9M▼ −0.50B €9.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
38
Minutes
2,082
Goals
4
Assists
7
Started
24/38
Min / app
55
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rueda…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €9.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Javi Rueda's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 97th, Assists per 90 99th, Minutes, two years 36th, Starts 18th, Minutes, last 365 days 64th, European club minutes 95th97thGoals99thAssists36thMinutes18thStarts64thRecent95thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.30 this player0.04 defender median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2021
Peak
€6M
Jun 2026
Model target
€6M
Jun 2026
Valuations
17
5 club changes
Jun 2026€6MCelta de VigoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €6M, Celta de Vigo. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-08-12€100kUD San Sebastián de los Reyes
2021-10-13€250kUD San Sebastián de los Reyes
2021-12-30€250kUD San Sebastián de los Reyes
2022-06-29€200kUD San Sebastián de los Reyes
2022-12-29€200kReal Murcia CF
2023-06-30€200kReal Madrid Castilla
2023-10-13€250kRC Celta Fortuna
2023-12-20€250kRC Celta Fortuna
2024-06-24€250kRC Celta Fortuna
2024-10-14€400kAlbacete Balompié
2024-12-13€400kAlbacete Balompié
2025-03-27€600kAlbacete Balompié
2025-06-24€800kAlbacete Balompié
2025-10-02€3MCelta de Vigo
2025-12-12€3MCelta de Vigo
2026-03-16€4MCelta de Vigo
2026-06-05€6MCelta de Vigo

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.500

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 61% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 73% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rueda appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).