FairValue

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Portrait of Lucas Digne

Lucas

Digne

LBFrance · Aston Villa

№ 126664Established €7.4M −0.21

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

LucasDigne

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Aston Villa
League
Premier League
Nationality
France
Age
32
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Digne at €6M. Model A, which never saw Digne during training, estimates €7.4M: the market value is 19% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.21A €7.4M▲ +0.16B €5.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
88
Minutes
6,035
Goals
0
Assists
14
Started
70/88
Min / app
69
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Digne…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €7.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Lucas Digne's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 96th, Minutes, two years 93rd, Starts 44th, Minutes, last 365 days 81st, European club minutes 90th18thGoals96thAssists93rdMinutes44thStarts81stRecent90thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.21 this player0.04 defender median96th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jul 2011
Peak
€35M
Dec 2019
Model target
€6M
Jun 2026
Valuations
43
6 club changes
Jun 2026€6MAston VillaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €6M, Aston Villa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-07-20€150kLOSC Lille B
2011-12-24€250kLOSC Lille B
2012-03-20€750kLOSC Lille
2012-05-23€2.5MLOSC Lille
2012-07-25€3MLOSC Lille
2012-08-23€5MLOSC Lille
2013-01-07€6.5MLOSC Lille
2013-05-30€8.5MLOSC Lille
2013-06-12€10MLOSC Lille
2014-01-14€10MParis Saint-Germain
2014-08-01€12.5MParis Saint-Germain
2015-01-14€12MParis Saint-Germain
2015-06-06€10MParis Saint-Germain
2016-01-04€10MAS Roma
2016-06-01€12MAS Roma
2016-07-15€16MFC Barcelona
2017-01-24€16MFC Barcelona
2017-06-05€16MFC Barcelona
2018-01-01€16MFC Barcelona
2018-03-22€15MFC Barcelona
2018-05-30€15MFC Barcelona
2018-08-13€18MEverton FC
2018-10-17€20MEverton FC
2018-12-19€25MEverton FC
2019-06-13€30MEverton FC
2019-12-10€35MEverton FC
2020-04-08€28MEverton FC
2020-10-13€30MEverton FC
2020-12-17€33MEverton FC
2021-03-18€35MEverton FC
2021-06-01€35MEverton FC
2021-12-23€30MEverton FC
2022-06-15€25MAston Villa
2022-11-03€22MAston Villa
2023-03-16€17MAston Villa
2023-06-20€15MAston Villa
2023-12-19€15MAston Villa
2024-03-14€12MAston Villa
2024-05-27€12MAston Villa
2024-12-16€12MAston Villa
2025-05-30€10MAston Villa
2025-12-09€8MAston Villa
2026-06-03€6MAston Villa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.210

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 23% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 73% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Digne appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).