FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Evgeniy

Morozov

CBRussia · Lokomotiv Moscow

№ 652270Established €5M −0.21

Player dossierPremier Liga

EvgeniyMorozov

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Lokomotiv Moscow
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
25
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Morozov at €4M. Model A, which never saw Morozov during training, estimates €5M: the market value is 19% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.24. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.21A €5M▲ +0.80B €1.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
35
Minutes
2,976
Goals
2
Assists
5
Started
34/35
Min / app
85
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Morozov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Evgeniy Morozov's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 70th, Assists per 90 89th, Minutes, two years 53rd, Starts 90th, Minutes, last 365 days 63rd, European club minutes 30th70thGoals89thAssists53rdMinutes90thStarts63rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

97% this player83% defender median90th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Feb 2018
Peak
€4.5M
Sept 2025
Model target
€4M
May 2026
Valuations
20
5 club changes
May 2026€4MLokomotiv MoscowValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €4M, Lokomotiv Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-02-22€25kUnknown
2019-04-20€25kLokomotiv Moscow II
2019-06-14€25kLokomotiv Moscow II
2019-12-23€50kLokomotiv Moscow II
2020-06-29€50kLokomotiv Moscow II
2020-12-29€100kLokomotiv Moscow II
2021-06-02€175kLokomotiv Moscow II
2021-12-03€225kLokomotiv-Kazanka Moscow
2022-05-30€275kVolgar Astrakhan
2022-11-21€600kFakel Voronezh
2023-06-14€1MFakel Voronezh
2023-10-05€1.2MLokomotiv Moscow
2023-12-13€1.8MLokomotiv Moscow
2024-06-04€2.8MLokomotiv Moscow
2024-09-18€4MLokomotiv Moscow
2024-12-12€3.5MLokomotiv Moscow
2025-06-04€3MLokomotiv Moscow
2025-09-18€4.5MLokomotiv Moscow
2025-12-16€4MLokomotiv Moscow
2026-05-26€4MLokomotiv Moscow

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.215

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 84% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Morozov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).