FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Dmitriy

Vasiljev

DMRussia · FC Sochi

№ 649343Emerging €1.1M −0.23

Player dossierPremier Liga

DmitriyVasiljev

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Sochi
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
21
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vasiljev at €900k. Model A, which never saw Vasiljev during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 21% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.23A €1.1M▼ −0.49B €1.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
39
Minutes
1,999
Goals
5
Assists
1
Started
23/39
Min / app
51
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vasiljev…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €900kModel A €1.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dmitriy Vasiljev's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 86th, Assists per 90 26th, Minutes, two years 36th, Starts 33rd, Minutes, last 365 days 53rd, European club minutes 30th86thGoals26thAssists36thMinutes33rdStarts53rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.23 this player0.08 midfielder median86th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2021
Peak
€900k
Dec 2025
Model target
€900k
May 2026
Valuations
13
4 club changes
May 2026€900kFC SochiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €900k, FC Sochi. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-12-24€50kAkademia Zenit St. Petersburg U17
2022-05-30€75kFC Orenburg
2022-11-21€100kFC Orenburg
2023-06-14€125kZenit 2 St. Petersburg
2023-10-05€500kZenit St. Petersburg
2023-12-13€500kZenit St. Petersburg
2024-06-04€500kZenit St. Petersburg
2024-09-18€700kZenit St. Petersburg
2024-12-12€700kZenit St. Petersburg
2025-06-04€600kZenit St. Petersburg
2025-09-18€750kFC Sochi
2025-12-16€900kFC Sochi
2026-05-26€900kFC Sochi

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.234

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 39% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 30% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vasiljev appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).