FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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Carlos

Domínguez

CBSpain · Celta de Vigo

№ 636093Established €3.6M −0.59

Player dossierLaLiga

CarlosDomínguez

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Celta de Vigo
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
25
Height
187 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Domínguez at €2M. Model A, which never saw Domínguez during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 44% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.80. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.59A €3.6M▲ +0.21B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
34
Minutes
2,242
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
24/34
Min / app
66
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Domínguez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €3.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Carlos Domínguez's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 56th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 39th, Starts 28th, Minutes, last 365 days 27th, European club minutes 66th56thGoals17thAssists39thMinutes28thStarts27thRecent66thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

5% this player0% defender median66th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2020
Peak
€3M
Jun 2024
Model target
€2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
17
1 club change
Jun 2026€2MCelta de VigoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2M, Celta de Vigo. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-10-08€50kCelta Vigo B
2021-01-07€50kCelta Vigo B
2021-06-30€1.5MCelta Vigo B
2021-10-13€1MCelta Vigo B
2021-12-30€1MCelta Vigo B
2022-06-03€1MCelta Vigo B
2022-06-29€1MCelta Vigo B
2022-11-07€1MCelta Vigo B
2022-12-29€1MCelta Vigo B
2023-06-13€800kCelta de Vigo
2023-12-22€700kCelta de Vigo
2024-03-21€1.5MCelta de Vigo
2024-06-07€3MCelta de Vigo
2024-12-27€2.5MCelta de Vigo
2025-06-09€3MCelta de Vigo
2025-12-12€3MCelta de Vigo
2026-06-05€2MCelta de Vigo

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.589

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 28% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Domínguez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).