FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Stole Dimitrievski

Stole

Dimitrievski

GKNorth Macedonia · Valencia CF

№ 165467Established €1.2M +0.48

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

StoleDimitrievski

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Valencia CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
North Macedonia
Age
32
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Dimitrievski at €2M. Model A, which never saw Dimitrievski during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 62% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.62. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €877k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.48A €1.2M▲ +0.82B €877k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
3,000
Started
33/33
Min / app
91
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dimitrievski…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Stole Dimitrievski's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 55th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 61st, European club minutes 32nd55thMinutes62ndStarts61stRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Dec 2011
Peak
€4M
Sept 2022
Model target
€2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
31
5 club changes
Jun 2026€2MValencia CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2M, Valencia CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-12-19€600kRabotnicki Skopje
2012-07-03€100kUdinese Primavera
2013-06-23€75kGranada CF B
2014-10-23€400kGranada CF B
2015-01-23€400kGranada CF B
2015-09-28€400kGranada CF B
2016-10-27€300kGimnàstic de Tarragona
2017-01-24€300kGimnàstic de Tarragona
2017-06-29€300kGimnàstic de Tarragona
2018-01-01€700kGimnàstic de Tarragona
2018-05-30€700kGimnàstic de Tarragona
2018-12-21€1MRayo Vallecano
2019-02-28€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2019-06-11€3MRayo Vallecano
2019-12-20€3MRayo Vallecano
2020-04-08€2.4MRayo Vallecano
2020-10-08€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2021-01-08€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2021-05-27€1.2MRayo Vallecano
2021-10-13€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2021-12-30€2.5MRayo Vallecano
2022-06-03€3MRayo Vallecano
2022-09-23€4MRayo Vallecano
2022-11-07€4MRayo Vallecano
2023-06-13€4MRayo Vallecano
2023-12-22€4MRayo Vallecano
2024-06-07€4MRayo Vallecano
2024-12-27€3MValencia CF
2025-06-09€2.5MValencia CF
2025-12-12€2MValencia CF
2026-06-05€2MValencia CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.481

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 28% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 59% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dimitrievski appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).