FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Unai

Vencedor

CMSpain · Levante UD

№ 610083Emerging €1.5M +0.08

Player dossierLaLiga

UnaiVencedor

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Levante UD
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
25
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vencedor at €1.6M. Model A, which never saw Vencedor during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 8% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.08. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €437k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.08A €1.5M▲ +1.30B €437k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
19
Minutes
993
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
13/19
Min / app
52
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vencedor…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.6MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Unai Vencedor's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 13th, Starts 49th, Minutes, last 365 days 31st, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists13thMinutes49thStarts31stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

68% this player69% midfielder median49th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Nov 2018
Peak
€20M
Jun 2022
Model target
€1.6M
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
4 club changes
Jun 2026€1.6MLevante UDValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.6M, Levante UD. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-11-23€200kBilbao Athletic
2019-02-19€300kBilbao Athletic
2019-06-29€300kBilbao Athletic
2019-09-10€300kBilbao Athletic
2020-02-11€300kBilbao Athletic
2020-03-05€2MBilbao Athletic
2020-04-08€1.8MBilbao Athletic
2020-10-08€1.8MAthletic Bilbao
2021-01-05€1.8MAthletic Bilbao
2021-03-19€5MAthletic Bilbao
2021-06-10€5MAthletic Bilbao
2021-10-13€7.5MAthletic Bilbao
2021-12-30€10MAthletic Bilbao
2022-06-03€20MAthletic Bilbao
2022-11-07€14MAthletic Bilbao
2023-06-13€9MAthletic Bilbao
2023-10-13€5MSD Eibar
2023-12-20€3MSD Eibar
2024-03-26€2.5MSD Eibar
2024-06-24€2.2MSD Eibar
2024-12-13€2.2MRacing Santander
2025-06-24€2.2MRacing Santander
2025-10-02€2MLevante UD
2025-12-12€2MLevante UD
2026-03-16€1.8MLevante UD
2026-06-05€1.6MLevante UD

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.076

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 24% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1.6MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vencedor appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).