MiguelSousa

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club: Casa Pia AC
League: Liga Portugal
Nationality: Portugal
Age: 27
Height: 176 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 18 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Sousa at €400k. Model A, which never saw Sousa during training, estimates €413k: the market value is 3% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €570k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 24
Minutes: 1,049
Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Started: 12/24
Min / app: 44
Cards: 3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sousa…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% midfielder median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €100k; Sept 2022
Peak: €500k; Jun 2024
Model target: €400k; Dec 2025
Valuations: 9; 2 club changes

Dec 2025€400kCasa Pia ACValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €400k, Casa Pia AC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2022-09-16	€100k	CS Marítimo
2022-11-01	€100k	CS Marítimo
2023-06-28	€150k	CD Mafra
2023-12-14	€275k	CD Mafra
2024-06-20	€500k	CD Mafra
2024-12-19	€500k	Casa Pia AC
2025-05-30	€500k	Casa Pia AC
2025-09-30	€400k	Casa Pia AC
2025-12-18	€400k	Casa Pia AC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.033

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 12% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

See them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 12% of the 1,687 midfielders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Sousa appears

TerminalLiga Portugal in the Player Explorer
TerminalLiga Portugal on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).