Marc
Gual
CFSpain · Rio Ave FC
Player dossierLiga Portugal
MarcGual
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- Rio Ave FC
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Spain
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 186 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Gual at €400k. Model A, which never saw Gual during training, estimates €459k: the market value is 13% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 17
- Minutes
- 572
- Goals
- 4
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 6/17
- Min / app
- 34
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gual…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
73% this player0% attacker median100th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Aug 2016
- Peak
- €1.8M
- Jun 2023
- Model target
- €400k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 28
- 8 club changes
May 2026: €400k, Rio Ave FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-08-01 | €200k | RCD Espanyol B |
| 2016-10-27 | €250k | RCD Espanyol B |
| 2017-01-24 | €300k | Sevilla Atlético |
| 2017-06-29 | €1.5M | Sevilla Atlético |
| 2018-01-01 | €1.5M | Sevilla Atlético |
| 2018-05-30 | €1.5M | Sevilla Atlético |
| 2019-02-19 | €1.5M | Real Zaragoza |
| 2019-06-29 | €1M | Real Zaragoza |
| 2019-12-20 | €1.4M | Girona FC |
| 2020-02-11 | €1.4M | Real Madrid Castilla |
| 2020-04-08 | €1.1M | Real Madrid Castilla |
| 2020-10-08 | €800k | AD Alcorcón |
| 2021-01-08 | €800k | AD Alcorcón |
| 2021-06-24 | €700k | AD Alcorcón |
| 2021-10-13 | €400k | AD Alcorcón |
| 2021-12-27 | €400k | AD Alcorcón |
| 2022-06-14 | €400k | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
| 2022-09-29 | €900k | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
| 2022-11-16 | €1.2M | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
| 2023-06-09 | €1.8M | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
| 2023-12-29 | €1.3M | Legia Warszawa |
| 2024-06-07 | €1.3M | Legia Warszawa |
| 2024-09-20 | €1M | Legia Warszawa |
| 2024-12-09 | €1.5M | Legia Warszawa |
| 2025-06-06 | €1.5M | Legia Warszawa |
| 2025-09-30 | €1M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2025-12-18 | €700k | Rio Ave FC |
| 2026-05-28 | €400k | Rio Ave FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.138
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 12% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 11% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Gual appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BrabecCBRio Ave FC · Liga Portugal€400k
- OliveiraCBSC Braga · Liga Portugal€400k
- AbascalCBVitória Guimarães SC · Liga Portugal€400k
- NóbregaCBVitória Guimarães SC · Liga Portugal€400k
- SansoneLWUS Lecce · attackers€400k
- LapadulaCFSpezia Calcio · attackers€400k
- RosaLWPanetolikos · attackers€400k
- IljinCFFC Sochi · attackers€400k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).