Joelson
Fernandes
LWPortugal · Gil Vicente FC
Player dossierLiga Portugal
JoelsonFernandes
LWLeft WingerAttack
- Club
- Gil Vicente FC
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 172 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Fernandes at €1M. Model A, which never saw Fernandes during training, estimates €2M: the market value is 49% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.95. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 58
- Minutes
- 3,280
- Goals
- 4
- Assists
- 7
- Started
- 37/58
- Min / app
- 57
- Cards
- 11Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fernandes…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
3,280 this player2,242 attacker median70th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €6M
- Aug 2020
- Peak
- €6M
- Aug 2020
- Model target
- €1M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 17
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €1M, Gil Vicente FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-08-17 | €6M | Sporting CP U23 |
| 2021-01-28 | €6M | Sporting CP U23 |
| 2021-05-21 | €6M | Sporting CP U23 |
| 2022-01-03 | €3.5M | FC Basel 1893 |
| 2022-06-08 | €2M | FC Basel 1893 |
| 2023-06-28 | €1.5M | Sporting CP B |
| 2023-09-27 | €2.2M | Hatayspor |
| 2023-12-21 | €2.2M | Hatayspor |
| 2024-03-15 | €2M | Hatayspor |
| 2024-05-31 | €1.8M | Hatayspor |
| 2024-10-04 | €1.8M | Hatayspor |
| 2024-12-23 | €1.7M | Hatayspor |
| 2025-03-20 | €1.6M | Hatayspor |
| 2025-06-18 | €1.4M | Hatayspor |
| 2025-09-30 | €1.5M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2025-12-18 | €1.5M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2026-05-28 | €1M | Gil Vicente FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.669
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 42% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 29% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Fernandes appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- OtamendiCBSL Benfica · Liga Portugal€1M
- SoaresLBFC Famalicão · Liga Portugal€1M
- ZlobinGKFC Famalicão · Liga Portugal€1M
- FerroCBGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€1M
- DzekoCFFC Schalke 04 · attackers€1M
- DzyubaCFAkron Tolyatti · attackers€1M
- PedroRWSS Lazio · attackers€1M
- DjuricCFUS Cremonese · attackers€1M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).