Tiago
Esgaio
RBPortugal · FC Arouca
Player dossierLiga Portugal
TiagoEsgaio
RBRight-BackDefender
- Club
- FC Arouca
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 175 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Esgaio at €1M. Model A, which never saw Esgaio during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 8% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.08. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 54
- Minutes
- 4,647
- Goals
- 5
- Assists
- 6
- Started
- 52/54
- Min / app
- 86
- Cards
- 12Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Esgaio…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
96% this player83% defender median88th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Oct 2019
- Peak
- €1M
- May 2021
- Model target
- €1M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 17
- 1 club change
May 2026: €1M, FC Arouca. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-11 | €100k | B SAD (2018-2024) |
| 2019-12-30 | €400k | B SAD (2018-2024) |
| 2020-04-08 | €325k | B SAD (2018-2024) |
| 2020-08-17 | €500k | B SAD (2018-2024) |
| 2021-01-28 | €800k | B SAD (2018-2024) |
| 2021-05-21 | €1M | B SAD (2018-2024) |
| 2021-12-27 | €800k | FC Arouca |
| 2022-03-10 | €600k | FC Arouca |
| 2022-05-31 | €500k | FC Arouca |
| 2022-11-01 | €700k | FC Arouca |
| 2023-06-16 | €900k | FC Arouca |
| 2023-12-27 | €900k | FC Arouca |
| 2024-06-06 | €1M | FC Arouca |
| 2024-12-19 | €900k | FC Arouca |
| 2025-05-30 | €900k | FC Arouca |
| 2025-12-18 | €900k | FC Arouca |
| 2026-05-28 | €1M | FC Arouca |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.080
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 42% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Esgaio appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- OtamendiCBSL Benfica · Liga Portugal€1M
- SoaresLBFC Famalicão · Liga Portugal€1M
- ZlobinGKFC Famalicão · Liga Portugal€1M
- FerroCBGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€1M
- AzpilicuetaCBSevilla FC · defenders€1M
- KaravaevRBDynamo Kyiv · defenders€1M
- BerchicheLBAthletic Bilbao · defenders€1M
- MandiCBLOSC Lille · defenders€1M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).