FairValue

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Egor

Lyubakov

GKRussia · Baltika Kaliningrad

№ 577714Emerging €653k −0.49

Player dossierPremier Liga

EgorLyubakov

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Baltika Kaliningrad
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
26
Height
196 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lyubakov at €400k. Model A, which never saw Lyubakov during training, estimates €653k: the market value is 39% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.63. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €563k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.49A €653k▼ −0.34B €563k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
7
Minutes
630
Started
7/7
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lyubakov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €653k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Egor Lyubakov's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 8th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 32nd8thMinutes62ndStarts26thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2018
Peak
€700k
Nov 2023
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
18
3 club changes
May 2026€400kBaltika KaliningradValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, Baltika Kaliningrad. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-10-14€50kKrylya Sovetov Samara II
2018-12-20€50kKrylya Sovetov Samara II
2019-06-14€50kFC Murom
2019-12-23€25kFC Murom
2020-06-29€25kFC Murom
2020-12-29€125kFC Murom
2021-06-28€125kFC Murom
2021-12-03€125kFC Murom
2022-06-13€100kFC Murom
2022-12-02€250kFC Tyumen
2023-06-26€350kFC Tyumen
2023-09-20€400kFC Tyumen
2023-11-30€700kFC Tyumen
2024-06-14€700kFC Tyumen
2024-12-04€450kBaltika Kaliningrad
2025-06-02€350kBaltika Kaliningrad
2025-12-16€400kBaltika Kaliningrad
2026-05-26€400kBaltika Kaliningrad

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.490

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 10% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 21% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lyubakov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).