Patrik
Carlgren
GKSweden · FC Nantes
Player dossierLigue 1
PatrikCarlgren
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- FC Nantes
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- Sweden
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 189 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Ligue 1Reading the valuation
The market values Carlgren at €400k. Model A, which never saw Carlgren during training, estimates €220k: the market value is 82% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.82. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €380k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 8
- Minutes
- 597
- Started
- 6/8
- Min / app
- 75
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Carlgren…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
0% this player0% goalkeeper median32nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €40k
- Aug 2012
- Peak
- €1.2M
- Dec 2016
- Model target
- €400k
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 28
- 5 club changes
Jun 2026: €400k, FC Nantes. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-08-11 | €40k | IK Brage |
| 2014-06-26 | €100k | AIK |
| 2015-04-11 | €350k | AIK |
| 2015-06-14 | €600k | AIK |
| 2015-11-29 | €800k | AIK |
| 2016-06-01 | €1M | AIK |
| 2016-12-11 | €1.2M | AIK |
| 2017-03-27 | €1M | FC Nordsjaelland |
| 2017-06-21 | €1M | FC Nordsjaelland |
| 2018-02-12 | €600k | Konyaspor |
| 2018-05-29 | €350k | Konyaspor |
| 2018-12-21 | €450k | Randers FC |
| 2019-06-08 | €700k | Randers FC |
| 2019-12-22 | €800k | Randers FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €650k | Randers FC |
| 2020-07-31 | €800k | Randers FC |
| 2020-12-23 | €1M | Randers FC |
| 2021-06-04 | €1M | Randers FC |
| 2021-12-28 | €1M | Randers FC |
| 2022-06-20 | €1M | Randers FC |
| 2022-12-22 | €1M | Randers FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €1M | Randers FC |
| 2023-12-21 | €800k | Randers FC |
| 2024-06-10 | €800k | Randers FC |
| 2024-12-10 | €800k | FC Nantes |
| 2025-06-03 | €600k | FC Nantes |
| 2025-12-15 | €500k | FC Nantes |
| 2026-06-01 | €400k | FC Nantes |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.599
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 2% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 21% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Carlgren appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- RadakovicCBFC Nantes · Ligue 1€400k
- HaugGKFC Toulouse · Ligue 1€400k
- PercinGKAJ Auxerre · Ligue 1€400k
- SarrRBFC Metz · Ligue 1€350k
- ForsterGKAFC Bournemouth · goalkeepers€400k
- GuaitaGKParma Calcio 1913 · goalkeepers€400k
- ChoutesiotisGKAtromitos Athens · goalkeepers€400k
- AkkanGKGenclerbirligi Ankara · goalkeepers€400k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).