FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Dmitriy

Kabutov

RBRussia · Rubin Kazan

№ 148118Emerging €523k −0.27

Player dossierPremier Liga

DmitriyKabutov

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Rubin Kazan
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
34
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kabutov at €400k. Model A, which never saw Kabutov during training, estimates €523k: the market value is 24% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €315k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.27A €523k▲ +0.24B €315k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
4,020
Goals
2
Assists
9
Started
44/54
Min / app
74
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kabutov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €523k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dmitriy Kabutov's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 60th, Assists per 90 95th, Minutes, two years 70th, Starts 48th, Minutes, last 365 days 45th, European club minutes 30th60thGoals95thAssists70thMinutes48thStarts45thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.20 this player0.04 defender median95th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2012
Peak
€1M
Sept 2019
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
31
8 club changes
May 2026€400kRubin KazanValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, Rubin Kazan. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-08-11€100kSalyut Belgorod
2013-01-22€200kRotor Volgograd
2013-06-08€250kRotor Volgograd
2013-12-27€200kRotor Volgograd
2014-06-29€200kRotor Volgograd
2015-06-11€200kGazovik Orenburg
2016-01-10€250kLuch-Energia Vladivostok
2016-07-01€300kVolgar Astrakhan
2016-12-27€300kVolgar Astrakhan
2017-06-01€300kVolgar Astrakhan
2017-12-05€400kVolgar Astrakhan
2018-06-06€400kSKA Khabarovsk
2018-12-20€450kSKA Khabarovsk
2019-06-14€500kSKA Khabarovsk
2019-09-10€1MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2019-12-23€1MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2020-04-08€800kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2020-07-29€900kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2020-12-29€1MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2021-05-24€1MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2021-12-06€700kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2022-06-02€700kFC Ufa
2022-12-08€700kRubin Kazan
2023-06-19€700kRubin Kazan
2023-12-13€700kRubin Kazan
2024-06-04€600kRubin Kazan
2024-12-12€800kRubin Kazan
2025-06-04€800kRubin Kazan
2025-12-16€750kRubin Kazan
2026-03-25€600kRubin Kazan
2026-05-26€400kRubin Kazan

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.268

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 10% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kabutov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).