FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Pablo

Martínez

CMSpain · Levante UD

№ 568835Established €3.8M −0.24

Player dossierLaLiga

PabloMartínez

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Levante UD
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
28
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Martínez at €3M. Model A, which never saw Martínez during training, estimates €3.8M: the market value is 21% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.24A €3.8M▲ +0.10B €2.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
29
Minutes
1,959
Goals
1
Assists
5
Started
22/29
Min / app
68
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Martínez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €3.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Pablo Martínez's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 32nd, Assists per 90 89th, Minutes, two years 35th, Starts 63rd, Minutes, last 365 days 63rd, European club minutes 30th32ndGoals89thAssists35thMinutes63rdStarts63rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.23 this player0.09 midfielder median89th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Nov 2018
Peak
€3M
Jun 2026
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
20
5 club changes
Jun 2026€3MLevante UDValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Levante UD. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-11-23€150kUD San Sebastián de los Reyes
2019-02-19€150kUD San Sebastián de los Reyes
2019-06-29€250kUD San Sebastián de los Reyes
2019-09-10€250kAtlético Levante UD
2020-02-11€250kAtlético Levante UD
2020-10-08€300kCD Mirandés
2021-01-08€400kCD Mirandés
2021-06-24€600kCD Mirandés
2021-10-13€1.5MLevante UD
2021-12-30€1.5MLevante UD
2022-06-29€1.5MSD Huesca
2022-12-29€1.2MLevante UD
2023-06-14€1.2MLevante UD
2023-12-20€1.4MLevante UD
2024-06-24€2.5MLevante UD
2024-12-13€2.5MLevante UD
2025-03-27€2MLevante UD
2025-06-24€2MLevante UD
2025-12-12€2MLevante UD
2026-06-05€3MLevante UD

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.239

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 40% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 56% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Martínez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).