Maximilian
Arnold
CMGermany · VfL Wolfsburg
Player dossierBundesliga
MaximilianArnold
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- VfL Wolfsburg
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 184 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Arnold at €3M. Model A, which never saw Arnold during training, estimates €2M: the market value is 47% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.47. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €575k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 57
- Minutes
- 4,603
- Goals
- 4
- Assists
- 10
- Started
- 51/57
- Min / app
- 81
- Cards
- 14Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Arnold…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
89% this player69% midfielder median86th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €150k
- Oct 2011
- Peak
- €19M
- Feb 2021
- Model target
- €3M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 36
- 1 club change
May 2026: €3M, VfL Wolfsburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-10-15 | €150k | VfL Wolfsburg U19 |
| 2012-01-23 | €200k | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2012-03-05 | €300k | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2012-06-29 | €500k | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2013-01-13 | €500k | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2013-06-30 | €950k | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2013-08-27 | €1.5M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2013-11-05 | €3M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2014-02-12 | €6M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2014-07-10 | €10M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2015-02-04 | €10M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2015-07-01 | €12M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2016-02-15 | €12M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2016-07-22 | €12M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2017-02-07 | €10M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2017-06-19 | €10M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2017-12-28 | €12M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2018-06-05 | €10M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2018-12-18 | €11M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2019-06-05 | €15M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2019-10-02 | €18M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2019-12-17 | €18M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2020-04-08 | €14.5M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2020-07-08 | €17M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2021-02-10 | €19M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2021-06-09 | €19M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2021-12-22 | €17M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2022-06-09 | €17M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2022-11-09 | €17M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2023-06-22 | €14M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2023-12-14 | €10M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2024-05-29 | €7M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2024-12-20 | €7M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2025-06-05 | €5M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2025-12-19 | €4.5M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2026-05-27 | €3M | VfL Wolfsburg |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.382
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 31% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 56% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Arnold appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GötzeAMEintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga€3M
- WeiserRBSV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga€3M
- CanCBBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€3M
- SchwäbeGK1.FC Köln · Bundesliga€3M
- MkhitaryanCMInter Milan · midfielders€3M
- AndréDMLOSC Lille · midfielders€3M
- KondogbiaDMOlympique Marseille · midfielders€3M
- DarderCMRCD Mallorca · midfielders€3M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).