FairValue

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Tijs

Velthuis

CBNetherlands · PEC Zwolle

№ 568377Emerging €358k +0.34

Player dossierEredivisie

TijsVelthuis

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
PEC Zwolle
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
24
Height
189 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Velthuis at €500k. Model A, which never saw Velthuis during training, estimates €358k: the market value is 40% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.40. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €626k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.34A €358k▼ −0.22B €626k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
14
Minutes
578
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
6/14
Min / app
41
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Velthuis…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €358k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Tijs Velthuis's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 3rd, Starts 4th, Minutes, last 365 days 14th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists3rdMinutes4thStarts14thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% defender median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Aug 2020
Peak
€900k
Dec 2023
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
16
5 club changes
May 2026€500kPEC ZwolleValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, PEC Zwolle. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-08-12€25kAZ Alkmaar U21
2020-10-24€200kAZ Alkmaar U21
2020-12-31€200kAZ Alkmaar U21
2021-10-12€300kAZ Alkmaar U21
2022-01-12€400kAZ Alkmaar U21
2022-03-24€500kAZ Alkmaar U21
2022-06-23€500kAZ Alkmaar U21
2023-07-04€450kSparta Rotterdam
2023-10-17€650kSparta Rotterdam
2023-12-15€900kSparta Rotterdam
2024-05-31€800kSparta Rotterdam
2024-12-23€800kUS Salernitana 1919
2025-06-02€700kUS Sassuolo
2025-10-02€550kSparta Rotterdam
2025-12-02€500kSparta Rotterdam
2026-05-28€500kPEC Zwolle

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.335

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 25% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Velthuis appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).