FairValue

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Thiago

Silva

CBBrazil · FC Porto

№ 29241Emerging €520k −0.04

Player dossierLiga Portugal

ThiagoSilva

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FC Porto
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Brazil
Age
41
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Silva at €500k. Model A, which never saw Silva during training, estimates €520k: the market value is 4% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €332k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.04A €520k▲ +0.41B €332k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
17
Minutes
1,386
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
15/17
Min / app
82
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Silva…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €520k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Thiago Silva's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 20th, Starts 64th, Minutes, last 365 days 41st, European club minutes 100th18thGoals17thAssists20thMinutes64thStarts41stRecent100thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

58% this player0% defender median100th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€3.5M
Feb 2005
Peak
€40M
Jan 2013
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
45
6 club changes
May 2026€500kFC PortoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, FC Porto. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2005-02-04€3.5MDinamo Moscow
2007-10-04€1.8MFluminense Football Club
2008-02-04€3MFluminense Football Club
2008-04-26€5MFluminense Football Club
2008-07-15€6MFluminense Football Club
2008-12-12€7.5MFluminense Football Club
2009-02-06€9MAC Milan
2010-01-27€14.5MAC Milan
2010-05-09€15.5MAC Milan
2010-08-02€18.5MAC Milan
2011-01-20€23MAC Milan
2011-06-21€30MAC Milan
2012-01-12€32MAC Milan
2012-06-08€38MAC Milan
2013-01-07€40MParis Saint-Germain
2013-05-30€40MParis Saint-Germain
2014-01-14€40MParis Saint-Germain
2014-08-01€40MParis Saint-Germain
2015-01-14€35MParis Saint-Germain
2015-06-06€30MParis Saint-Germain
2015-09-06€25MParis Saint-Germain
2016-02-04€20MParis Saint-Germain
2016-07-13€16MParis Saint-Germain
2017-01-16€16MParis Saint-Germain
2017-06-01€12MParis Saint-Germain
2018-01-24€10MParis Saint-Germain
2018-06-04€10MParis Saint-Germain
2018-12-17€10MParis Saint-Germain
2019-06-03€10MParis Saint-Germain
2019-09-27€6MParis Saint-Germain
2019-12-19€6MParis Saint-Germain
2020-04-08€4.8MParis Saint-Germain
2020-10-13€4.5MChelsea FC
2021-03-18€3.5MChelsea FC
2021-06-08€3MChelsea FC
2021-12-23€2.5MChelsea FC
2022-06-15€2.5MChelsea FC
2022-11-03€2.5MChelsea FC
2023-06-20€2MChelsea FC
2023-12-19€2MChelsea FC
2024-05-27€1MChelsea FC
2024-12-09€800kFluminense Football Club
2025-06-06€700kFluminense Football Club
2025-12-10€600kFluminense Football Club
2026-05-28€500kFC Porto

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.040

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 20% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Silva appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).