FairValue

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Oskar

Zawada

CFPoland · FC Groningen

№ 232015Emerging €649k −0.26

Player dossierEredivisie

OskarZawada

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
FC Groningen
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Poland
Age
30
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Zawada at €500k. Model A, which never saw Zawada during training, estimates €649k: the market value is 23% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €800k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.26A €649k▼ −0.47B €800k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
46
Minutes
2,533
Goals
14
Assists
0
Started
27/46
Min / app
55
Cards
3Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Zawada…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €649k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Oskar Zawada's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 88th, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 57th, Starts 49th, Minutes, last 365 days 8th, European club minutes 28th88thGoals6thAssists57thMinutes49thStarts8thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.50 this player0.26 attacker median88th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2014
Peak
€750k
Mar 2025
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
28
11 club changes
May 2026€500kFC GroningenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, FC Groningen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-08-21€100kVfL Wolfsburg II
2015-02-04€250kVfL Wolfsburg II
2015-07-01€250kVfL Wolfsburg
2016-02-05€250kFC Twente Enschede
2016-07-22€250kVfL Wolfsburg II
2016-10-25€150kVfL Wolfsburg II
2017-01-23€150kVfL Wolfsburg II
2017-06-27€150kKarlsruher SC
2018-01-16€150kWisla Plock
2018-07-03€150kWisla Plock
2019-01-25€150kWisla Plock
2019-06-29€300kWisla Plock
2020-01-15€250kWisla Plock
2020-08-18€150kWisla Plock
2021-01-19€200kRaków Częstochowa
2021-06-22€200kJeju United
2021-12-26€200kJeju United
2022-04-07€300kStal Mielec
2022-06-14€300kStal Mielec
2023-04-05€500kWellington Phoenix
2024-01-08€600kWellington Phoenix
2024-05-28€600kWellington Phoenix
2024-12-17€550kRKC Waalwijk
2025-03-28€750kRKC Waalwijk
2025-05-28€700kRKC Waalwijk
2025-12-02€650kFC Groningen
2026-03-11€500kFC Groningen
2026-05-28€500kFC Groningen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.260

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 25% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 15% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Zawada appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).