FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Vic

Chambaere

GKBelgium · Union Saint-Gilloise

№ 565429Emerging €901k −0.25

Player dossierPro League

VicChambaere

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Union Saint-Gilloise
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
23
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Chambaere at €700k. Model A, which never saw Chambaere during training, estimates €901k: the market value is 22% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €630k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.25A €901k▲ +0.10B €630k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
10
Minutes
855
Started
9/10
Min / app
86
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chambaere…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €901k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Vic Chambaere's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 13th, Starts 6th, Minutes, last 365 days 33rd, European club minutes 32nd13thMinutes6thStarts33rdRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

855 this player1,560 goalkeeper median33rd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jun 2021
Peak
€700k
Mar 2026
Model target
€700k
Jun 2026
Valuations
13
2 club changes
Jun 2026€700kUnion Saint-GilloiseValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €700k, Union Saint-Gilloise. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-07€100kKRC Genk U18
2022-01-06€100kKRC Genk
2022-04-12€100kKRC Genk
2022-11-04€100kKRC Genk
2023-06-09€200kKRC Genk
2023-12-19€150kKRC Genk
2024-06-04€150kKRC Genk
2024-10-02€300kUnion Saint-Gilloise
2024-12-11€300kUnion Saint-Gilloise
2025-06-12€300kUnion Saint-Gilloise
2025-12-10€300kUnion Saint-Gilloise
2026-03-13€700kUnion Saint-Gilloise
2026-06-04€700kUnion Saint-Gilloise

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.253

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 19% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 35% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Chambaere appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).