FairValue

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Nicolas

Höfler

DMGermany · SC Freiburg

№ 55099Emerging €508k −0.02

Player dossierBundesliga

NicolasHöfler

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
SC Freiburg
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
36
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Höfler at €500k. Model A, which never saw Höfler during training, estimates €508k: the market value is 2% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €417k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.02A €508k▲ +0.18B €417k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
1,279
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
10/40
Min / app
32
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Höfler…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €508k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Nicolas Höfler's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 39th, Minutes, two years 20th, Starts 4th, Minutes, last 365 days 11th, European club minutes 76th10thGoals39thAssists20thMinutes4thStarts11thRecent76thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

14% this player0% midfielder median76th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2009
Peak
€4.5M
Dec 2019
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
39
4 club changes
May 2026€500kSC FreiburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, SC Freiburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2009-01-22€50kSC Freiburg U19
2009-06-18€100kSC Freiburg U19
2010-01-08€150kSC Freiburg II
2010-08-29€150kSC Freiburg
2011-01-12€150kSC Freiburg
2011-06-29€150kSC Freiburg
2012-01-16€300kFC Erzgebirge Aue
2012-06-24€350kFC Erzgebirge Aue
2012-11-14€500kFC Erzgebirge Aue
2013-01-04€700kFC Erzgebirge Aue
2013-06-29€800kFC Erzgebirge Aue
2014-02-12€1MSC Freiburg
2014-07-10€750kSC Freiburg
2015-02-04€1MSC Freiburg
2015-07-01€1MSC Freiburg
2016-02-11€1.2MSC Freiburg
2016-07-22€1.5MSC Freiburg
2016-10-13€2MSC Freiburg
2017-02-07€2.5MSC Freiburg
2017-06-19€3.5MSC Freiburg
2017-12-28€3.5MSC Freiburg
2018-06-05€4MSC Freiburg
2018-12-18€4MSC Freiburg
2019-06-05€4MSC Freiburg
2019-12-17€4.5MSC Freiburg
2020-04-08€3.5MSC Freiburg
2021-02-10€3MSC Freiburg
2021-06-09€2.5MSC Freiburg
2021-12-22€2.5MSC Freiburg
2022-06-09€2.5MSC Freiburg
2022-11-09€2.5MSC Freiburg
2023-06-22€2.5MSC Freiburg
2023-12-14€2MSC Freiburg
2024-05-29€2MSC Freiburg
2024-10-09€1MSC Freiburg
2024-12-20€700kSC Freiburg
2025-06-05€500kSC Freiburg
2025-12-19€500kSC Freiburg
2026-05-27€500kSC Freiburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.015

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 2% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 16% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Höfler appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).