FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Kaj de

Rooij

LWNetherlands · PEC Zwolle

№ 540927Emerging €1.3M −0.26

Player dossierEredivisie

Kaj deRooij

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
PEC Zwolle
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
25
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rooij at €1M. Model A, which never saw Rooij during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 23% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.26A €1.3M▼ −1.44B €4.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
55
Minutes
2,454
Goals
9
Assists
6
Started
24/55
Min / app
45
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rooij…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €1.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Kaj de Rooij's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 63rd, Assists per 90 76th, Minutes, two years 55th, Starts 25th, Minutes, last 365 days 76th, European club minutes 28th63rdGoals76thAssists55thMinutes25thStarts76thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,095 this player1,301 attacker median76th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jan 2019
Peak
€1M
Dec 2025
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
17
4 club changes
May 2026€1MPEC ZwolleValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, PEC Zwolle. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-21€25kFC Eindhoven U19
2019-07-03€25kFC Eindhoven
2020-01-17€300kFC Eindhoven
2020-06-29€400kFC Eindhoven
2020-08-12€475kFC Eindhoven
2020-10-24€575kNAC Breda
2020-12-31€575kNAC Breda
2021-10-12€500kNAC Breda
2022-01-12€475kNAC Breda
2022-06-23€450kNAC Breda
2023-07-04€375kWithout Club
2024-05-31€350kPEC Zwolle
2024-12-17€350kPEC Zwolle
2025-05-28€350kPEC Zwolle
2025-10-02€600kPEC Zwolle
2025-12-02€1MPEC Zwolle
2026-05-28€1MPEC Zwolle

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.263

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 46% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 29% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rooij appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).