FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Cedric

Teguia

LWSpain · Moreirense FC

№ 536831Emerging €765k +0.04

Player dossierLiga Portugal

CedricTeguia

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Moreirense FC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Spain
Age
24
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Teguia at €800k. Model A, which never saw Teguia during training, estimates €765k: the market value is 5% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €802k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.04A €765k▼ 0.00B €802k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
36
Minutes
1,828
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
20/36
Min / app
51
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Teguia…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €765k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Cedric Teguia's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 14th, Assists per 90 15th, Minutes, two years 40th, Starts 44th, Minutes, last 365 days 31st, European club minutes 28th14thGoals15thAssists40thMinutes44thStarts31stRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

56% this player59% attacker median44th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Sept 2019
Peak
€800k
May 2025
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
16
8 club changes
May 2026€800kMoreirense FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, Moreirense FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-10€200kAtlético Madrileño
2020-02-11€200kAtlético Madrileño
2020-10-08€300kReal Oviedo
2021-01-08€300kReal Oviedo
2021-06-24€300kAlbacete Balompié
2021-12-30€300kCelta Vigo B
2022-06-29€300kCelta Vigo B
2022-12-29€300kCórdoba CF
2023-06-30€250kAtlético Madrileño
2023-12-20€250kAD Ceuta FC
2024-03-26€400kAD Ceuta FC
2024-06-24€500kAD Ceuta FC
2024-12-13€500kFC Cartagena
2025-05-30€800kMoreirense FC
2025-12-18€800kMoreirense FC
2026-05-28€800kMoreirense FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.045

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 35% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 25% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Teguia appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).