FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Darko

Nejasmic

DMCroatia · NEC Nijmegen

№ 526566Established €5.4M −0.30

Player dossierEredivisie

DarkoNejasmic

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
NEC Nijmegen
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Croatia
Age
27
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nejasmic at €4M. Model A, which never saw Nejasmic during training, estimates €5.4M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.30A €5.4M▼ −0.14B €4.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
36
Minutes
2,926
Goals
4
Assists
1
Started
33/36
Min / app
81
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nejasmic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €5.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Darko Nejasmic's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 64th, Assists per 90 20th, Minutes, two years 56th, Starts 89th, Minutes, last 365 days 83rd, European club minutes 74th64thGoals20thAssists56thMinutes89thStarts83rdRecent74thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

92% this player69% midfielder median89th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2018
Peak
€4M
May 2026
Model target
€4M
May 2026
Valuations
19
3 club changes
May 2026€4MNEC NijmegenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €4M, NEC Nijmegen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-09-25€100kHNK Hajduk Split
2019-03-11€350kHNK Hajduk Split
2019-09-16€1MHNK Hajduk Split
2019-12-27€2MHNK Hajduk Split
2020-04-08€1.8MHNK Hajduk Split
2020-07-27€1.6MHNK Hajduk Split
2020-12-28€1MHNK Hajduk Split
2021-06-10€500kHNK Hajduk Split
2021-12-30€1.3MNK Osijek
2022-06-06€1.3MNK Osijek
2022-11-08€1.6MNK Osijek
2023-06-06€1.6MNK Osijek
2023-12-18€1.8MNK Osijek
2024-06-04€1.8MNK Osijek
2024-11-18€1.8MSharjah FC
2025-05-29€1.5MSharjah FC
2025-12-02€2MNEC Nijmegen
2026-03-11€3MNEC Nijmegen
2026-05-28€4MNEC Nijmegen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.301

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 76% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 61% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nejasmic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).