FairValue

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Portrait of Wataru Endo

Wataru

Endo

DMJapan · Liverpool FC

№ 146310Established €1.8M +0.78

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

WataruEndo

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Liverpool FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Japan
Age
33
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Endo at €4M. Model A, which never saw Endo during training, estimates €1.8M: the market value is 117% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €817k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.78A €1.8M▲ +1.59B €817k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
1,024
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
7/40
Min / app
26
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Endo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €1.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Wataru Endo's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 48th, Minutes, two years 14th, Starts 1st, Minutes, last 365 days 10th, European club minutes 87th10thGoals48thAssists14thMinutes1stStarts10thRecent87thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

22% this player0% midfielder median87th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€700k
Feb 2012
Peak
€13M
Oct 2023
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
4 club changes
Jun 2026€4MLiverpool FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Liverpool FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-02-12€700kShonan Bellmare
2012-04-19€350kShonan Bellmare
2013-07-05€600kShonan Bellmare
2015-07-01€850kShonan Bellmare
2016-02-25€1.2MUrawa Red Diamonds
2017-03-25€1.5MUrawa Red Diamonds
2018-01-05€1.4MUrawa Red Diamonds
2018-09-11€1.5MSint-Truidense VV
2018-12-27€1.5MSint-Truidense VV
2019-06-10€2MSint-Truidense VV
2019-12-13€2MVfB Stuttgart
2020-04-08€1.6MVfB Stuttgart
2020-07-15€2.5MVfB Stuttgart
2020-11-26€6MVfB Stuttgart
2021-02-10€8MVfB Stuttgart
2021-06-09€10MVfB Stuttgart
2021-12-22€10MVfB Stuttgart
2022-06-09€8MVfB Stuttgart
2022-11-09€6.5MVfB Stuttgart
2023-06-22€6.5MVfB Stuttgart
2023-10-09€13MLiverpool FC
2023-12-19€13MLiverpool FC
2024-05-27€13MLiverpool FC
2024-12-16€12MLiverpool FC
2025-03-18€10MLiverpool FC
2025-05-30€8MLiverpool FC
2025-12-09€5MLiverpool FC
2026-06-03€4MLiverpool FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.776

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 16% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 61% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Endo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).