Fernando
Costanza
DMBrazil · Krylya Sovetov Samara
Player dossierPremier Liga
FernandoCostanza
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Krylya Sovetov Samara
- League
- Premier Liga
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 182 cm
- Foot
- Both
- Valued
- 26 May 2026
Premier LigaReading the valuation
The market values Costanza at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Costanza during training, estimates €2M: the market value is 26% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 55
- Minutes
- 4,278
- Goals
- 5
- Assists
- 5
- Started
- 48/55
- Min / app
- 78
- Cards
- 17Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Costanza…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
87% this player69% midfielder median82nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Dec 2017
- Peak
- €3.5M
- Jun 2024
- Model target
- €2.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 20
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €2.5M, Krylya Sovetov Samara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-07 | €50k | Unknown |
| 2019-05-28 | €500k | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2019-08-15 | €800k | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2019-11-27 | €700k | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2020-04-08 | €625k | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2020-09-09 | €600k | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2021-05-24 | €500k | FC Sheriff Tiraspol |
| 2021-10-18 | €800k | FC Sheriff Tiraspol |
| 2021-12-25 | €1M | FC Sheriff Tiraspol |
| 2022-06-02 | €1.2M | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
| 2022-11-21 | €1.2M | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
| 2023-06-14 | €1.2M | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
| 2023-10-05 | €1.8M | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
| 2023-12-13 | €3M | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
| 2024-06-04 | €3.5M | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
| 2024-12-12 | €3M | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
| 2025-06-04 | €3M | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
| 2025-12-16 | €2.8M | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
| 2026-03-25 | €2.5M | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
| 2026-05-26 | €2.5M | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.231
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier Liga412 players · median €1M
Valued above 70% of the 412 Premier Liga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 51% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Costanza appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- NgamaleuLWDynamo Moscow · Premier Liga€2.5M
- BakaevRWLokomotiv Moscow · Premier Liga€2.5M
- SkopintsevLBDynamo Moscow · Premier Liga€2.5M
- RudenkoLWLokomotiv Moscow · Premier Liga€2.5M
- EriksenAMVfL Wolfsburg · midfielders€2.5M
- GroßCMBrighton & Hove Albion · midfielders€2.5M
- BuyalskyiAMDynamo Kyiv · midfielders€2.5M
- TouréDMLe Havre AC · midfielders€2.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).