FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Christian Eriksen

Christian

Eriksen

AMDenmark · VfL Wolfsburg

№ 69633Established €1.5M +0.50

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

ChristianEriksen

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
VfL Wolfsburg
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
34
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Eriksen at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Eriksen during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 64% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.64. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.50A €1.5M▲ +0.52B €1.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
65
Minutes
4,101
Goals
6
Assists
15
Started
45/65
Min / app
63
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Eriksen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Christian Eriksen's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 97th, Minutes, two years 75th, Starts 50th, Minutes, last 365 days 81st, European club minutes 73rd67thGoals97thAssists75thMinutes50thStarts81stRecent73rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.33 this player0.09 midfielder median97th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jan 2010
Peak
€100M
Jun 2019
Model target
€2.5M
May 2026
Valuations
45
5 club changes
May 2026€2.5MVfL WolfsburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.5M, VfL Wolfsburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-01-21€200kAjax Amsterdam
2010-02-24€500kAjax Amsterdam
2010-04-11€2MAjax Amsterdam
2010-08-01€3MAjax Amsterdam
2011-01-17€3.5MAjax Amsterdam
2011-02-28€5MAjax Amsterdam
2011-06-15€7MAjax Amsterdam
2011-09-03€9MAjax Amsterdam
2012-01-05€13MAjax Amsterdam
2012-06-30€16MAjax Amsterdam
2013-05-28€18MAjax Amsterdam
2014-01-15€18MTottenham Hotspur
2014-08-12€20MTottenham Hotspur
2015-02-12€27MTottenham Hotspur
2015-07-01€27MTottenham Hotspur
2016-02-09€29MTottenham Hotspur
2016-08-01€31MTottenham Hotspur
2017-02-20€35MTottenham Hotspur
2017-06-28€40MTottenham Hotspur
2017-10-23€50MTottenham Hotspur
2018-01-02€70MTottenham Hotspur
2018-05-28€80MTottenham Hotspur
2018-12-19€80MTottenham Hotspur
2019-03-05€85MTottenham Hotspur
2019-06-13€100MTottenham Hotspur
2019-12-10€90MTottenham Hotspur
2020-03-03€85MInter Milan
2020-04-08€68MInter Milan
2020-08-25€60MInter Milan
2020-10-29€50MInter Milan
2020-12-29€35MInter Milan
2021-05-26€40MInter Milan
2021-12-15€15MInter Milan
2022-06-15€20MBrentford FC
2022-09-15€22MManchester United
2022-11-03€25MManchester United
2023-06-20€22MManchester United
2023-10-09€18MManchester United
2023-12-19€13MManchester United
2024-03-14€10MManchester United
2024-05-27€8MManchester United
2024-12-16€6MManchester United
2025-05-30€4MManchester United
2025-12-19€3MVfL Wolfsburg
2026-05-27€2.5MVfL Wolfsburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.497

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 25% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 51% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Eriksen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).