FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Amine

Talal

CMMorocco · Akhmat Grozny

№ 524356Emerging €854k −0.76

Player dossierPremier Liga

AmineTalal

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Akhmat Grozny
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Morocco
Age
29
Height
177 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
16 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Talal at €400k. Model A, which never saw Talal during training, estimates €854k: the market value is 53% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €782k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.76A €854k▼ −0.67B €782k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
1,412
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
18/26
Min / app
54
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Talal…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €854k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Amine Talal's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 81st, Assists per 90 63rd, Minutes, two years 23rd, Starts 50th, Minutes, last 365 days 27th, European club minutes 30th81stGoals63rdAssists23rdMinutes50thStarts27thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.19 this player0.08 midfielder median81st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
May 2018
Peak
€1M
Dec 2023
Model target
€400k
Dec 2025
Valuations
18
3 club changes
Dec 2025€400kAkhmat GroznyValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €400k, Akhmat Grozny. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-05-16€150kUS Orléans
2019-01-08€150kUS Orléans
2019-06-27€200kUS Orléans
2019-09-30€300kUS Orléans
2020-01-06€300kUS Orléans
2020-11-11€500kUS Orléans
2021-06-25€500kUS Orléans
2021-12-27€500kSC Bastia
2022-06-02€600kSC Bastia
2022-10-28€400kSC Bastia
2023-06-08€750kFC Sheriff Tiraspol
2023-12-08€1MFC Sheriff Tiraspol
2024-06-04€700kAkhmat Grozny
2024-12-12€600kAkhmat Grozny
2025-03-19€800kAkhmat Grozny
2025-06-04€800kAkhmat Grozny
2025-09-18€600kAkhmat Grozny
2025-12-16€400kAkhmat Grozny

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.759

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 10% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 12% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Talal appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).