FairValue

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Portrait of Nicolás Domínguez

Nicolás

Domínguez

CMArgentina · Nottingham Forest

№ 497291Elite €22.5M −0.40

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

NicolásDomínguez

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Nottingham Forest
League
Premier League
Nationality
Argentina
Age
27
Height
179 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Domínguez at €15M. Model A, which never saw Domínguez during training, estimates €22.5M: the market value is 33% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.50. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €27.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.40A €22.5M▼ −0.60B €27.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
80
Minutes
4,526
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
54/80
Min / app
57
Cards
16Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Domínguez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €22.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Nicolás Domínguez's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 29th, Assists per 90 24th, Minutes, two years 81st, Starts 47th, Minutes, last 365 days 71st, European club minutes 86th29thGoals24thAssists81stMinutes47thStarts71stRecent86thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

21% this player0% midfielder median86th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Oct 2017
Peak
€18M
May 2025
Model target
€15M
Jun 2026
Valuations
20
2 club changes
Jun 2026€15MNottingham ForestValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €15M, Nottingham Forest. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-10-09€600kCA Vélez Sarsfield
2018-05-08€4MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2018-12-18€7.5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2019-08-06€12.5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2019-12-05€17.5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2020-04-08€15.5MBologna FC 1909
2020-08-25€14MBologna FC 1909
2020-12-29€10MBologna FC 1909
2021-06-03€10MBologna FC 1909
2021-12-28€13MBologna FC 1909
2022-06-07€13MBologna FC 1909
2022-11-11€12MBologna FC 1909
2023-03-21€15MBologna FC 1909
2023-06-15€17MBologna FC 1909
2023-12-19€17MNottingham Forest
2024-05-27€17MNottingham Forest
2024-12-16€17MNottingham Forest
2025-05-30€18MNottingham Forest
2025-12-09€16MNottingham Forest
2026-06-03€15MNottingham Forest

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.405

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 43% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 83% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Domínguez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).