FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Alisson

GKBrazil · Liverpool FC

№ 105470Elite €5.9M +0.94

Player dossierPremier League

Alisson

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Liverpool FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
33
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Alisson at €15M. Model A, which never saw Alisson during training, estimates €5.9M: the market value is 156% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.56. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.94A €5.9M▲ +1.21B €4.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
69
Minutes
6,195
Started
69/69
Min / app
90
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Alisson…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €5.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Alisson's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 87th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 82nd, European club minutes 82nd87thMinutes62ndStarts82ndRecent82ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,195 this player2,790 goalkeeper median87th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Feb 2012
Peak
€90M
Dec 2019
Model target
€15M
Jun 2026
Valuations
33
3 club changes
Jun 2026€15MLiverpool FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €15M, Liverpool FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-02-08€150kSC Internacional B
2012-05-24€150kSC Internacional B
2012-12-05€150kSC Internacional B
2014-08-07€300kSport Club Internacional
2015-02-01€1MSport Club Internacional
2015-05-31€2.5MSport Club Internacional
2015-09-11€3.5MSport Club Internacional
2015-12-15€5MSport Club Internacional
2016-05-27€7MSport Club Internacional
2017-01-02€7MAS Roma
2017-06-08€7MAS Roma
2017-10-13€10MAS Roma
2017-12-29€16MAS Roma
2018-03-24€45MAS Roma
2018-06-07€60MAS Roma
2018-12-19€65MLiverpool FC
2019-06-13€80MLiverpool FC
2019-12-10€90MLiverpool FC
2020-04-08€72MLiverpool FC
2020-10-13€80MLiverpool FC
2021-03-18€65MLiverpool FC
2021-06-08€60MLiverpool FC
2021-12-23€60MLiverpool FC
2022-06-15€50MLiverpool FC
2022-11-03€50MLiverpool FC
2023-03-16€45MLiverpool FC
2023-06-20€35MLiverpool FC
2023-12-19€32MLiverpool FC
2024-05-27€28MLiverpool FC
2024-12-16€25MLiverpool FC
2025-05-30€20MLiverpool FC
2025-12-09€17MLiverpool FC
2026-06-03€15MLiverpool FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.938

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 43% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 92% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Alisson appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).