FairValue

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Portrait of Ronald Araujo

Ronald

Araujo

CBUruguay · FC Barcelona

№ 480267Elite €12.4M +0.48

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

RonaldAraujo

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FC Barcelona
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Uruguay
Age
27
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Araujo at €20M. Model A, which never saw Araujo during training, estimates €12.4M: the market value is 61% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.61. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.48A €12.4M▲ +0.83B €8.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
63
Minutes
3,175
Goals
6
Assists
2
Started
33/63
Min / app
50
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Araujo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €12.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ronald Araujo's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 97th, Assists per 90 61st, Minutes, two years 56th, Starts 9th, Minutes, last 365 days 48th, European club minutes 95th97thGoals61stAssists56thMinutes9thStarts48thRecent95thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.17 this player0.03 defender median97th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
May 2017
Peak
€70M
Mar 2023
Model target
€20M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
3 club changes
Jun 2026€20MFC BarcelonaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €20M, FC Barcelona. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-05-22€100kCA Rentistas
2018-02-05€175kCA Boston River
2018-09-03€1.5MFC Barcelona B
2019-02-19€1.5MFC Barcelona B
2019-06-29€1.5MFC Barcelona B
2019-09-10€2MFC Barcelona B
2020-02-11€5MFC Barcelona B
2020-04-08€4.5MFC Barcelona B
2020-07-23€10MFC Barcelona B
2020-10-08€15MFC Barcelona
2021-01-05€20MFC Barcelona
2021-03-19€25MFC Barcelona
2021-06-10€25MFC Barcelona
2021-12-30€35MFC Barcelona
2022-03-21€40MFC Barcelona
2022-06-03€50MFC Barcelona
2022-09-23€60MFC Barcelona
2022-11-07€60MFC Barcelona
2023-03-23€70MFC Barcelona
2023-06-13€70MFC Barcelona
2023-12-22€70MFC Barcelona
2024-06-07€70MFC Barcelona
2024-12-27€55MFC Barcelona
2025-03-21€50MFC Barcelona
2025-06-09€35MFC Barcelona
2025-12-12€25MFC Barcelona
2026-03-16€20MFC Barcelona
2026-06-05€20MFC Barcelona

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.476

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 86% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Araujo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).