DaniVivian

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: Athletic Bilbao
League: LaLiga
Nationality: Spain
Age: 26
Height: 184 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vivian at €20M. Model A, which never saw Vivian during training, estimates €14.5M: the market value is 38% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €22.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 87
Minutes: 7,127
Goals: 5
Assists: 0
Started: 78/87
Min / app: 82
Cards: 14Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vivian…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,127 this player2,860 defender median98th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Feb 2018
Peak: €40M; Dec 2024
Model target: €20M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 28; 2 club changes

Jun 2026€20MAthletic BilbaoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €20M, Athletic Bilbao. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2018-02-18	€50k	Bilbao Athletic
2018-05-30	€50k	Bilbao Athletic
2019-02-19	€200k	Bilbao Athletic
2019-06-29	€250k	Bilbao Athletic
2019-09-10	€250k	Bilbao Athletic
2020-02-11	€200k	Bilbao Athletic
2020-10-08	€200k	CD Mirandés
2020-11-23	€600k	CD Mirandés
2021-01-08	€800k	CD Mirandés
2021-03-19	€1M	CD Mirandés
2021-06-24	€1.5M	CD Mirandés
2021-10-13	€7.5M	Athletic Bilbao
2021-12-30	€7.5M	Athletic Bilbao
2022-03-21	€12M	Athletic Bilbao
2022-06-03	€12M	Athletic Bilbao
2022-09-23	€15M	Athletic Bilbao
2022-11-07	€14M	Athletic Bilbao
2023-06-13	€14M	Athletic Bilbao
2023-10-13	€15M	Athletic Bilbao
2023-12-22	€20M	Athletic Bilbao
2024-03-21	€25M	Athletic Bilbao
2024-06-07	€25M	Athletic Bilbao
2024-10-11	€30M	Athletic Bilbao
2024-12-27	€40M	Athletic Bilbao
2025-06-09	€40M	Athletic Bilbao
2025-12-12	€30M	Athletic Bilbao
2026-03-16	€25M	Athletic Bilbao
2026-06-05	€20M	Athletic Bilbao

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.320

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 86% of the 509 LaLiga players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Vivian appears

TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).