FairValue

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David

Hrncar

RMSlovakia · FCV Dender EH

№ 471621Emerging €546k −0.09

Player dossierPro League

DavidHrncar

RMRight MidfieldMidfield

Club
FCV Dender EH
League
Pro League
Nationality
Slovakia
Age
28
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Hrncar at €500k. Model A, which never saw Hrncar during training, estimates €546k: the market value is 8% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €949k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.09A €546k▼ −0.64B €949k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
43
Minutes
2,414
Goals
4
Assists
2
Started
27/43
Min / app
56
Cards
2Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hrncar…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €546k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

David Hrncar's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 72nd, Assists per 90 41st, Minutes, two years 46th, Starts 38th, Minutes, last 365 days 25th, European club minutes 30th72ndGoals41stAssists46thMinutes38thStarts25thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.15 this player0.08 midfielder median72nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2017
Peak
€1.2M
Jun 2025
Model target
€500k
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
6 club changes
Jun 2026€500kFCV Dender EHValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €500k, FCV Dender EH. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-06-28€50kMSK Zilina B
2018-12-30€75kSlovan Bratislava
2019-12-15€175kFK Pohronie
2020-07-10€175kFC ViOn Zlate Moravce-Vrable
2020-12-28€450kFC ViOn Zlate Moravce-Vrable
2021-06-26€600kFC ViOn Zlate Moravce-Vrable
2021-12-26€550kSlovan Bratislava
2022-06-23€550kSlovan Bratislava
2022-12-16€550kSlovan Bratislava
2023-05-30€750kSK Beveren
2023-12-28€700kSK Beveren
2024-06-20€800kSK Beveren
2024-10-02€1MFCV Dender EH
2024-12-11€800kFCV Dender EH
2025-06-12€1.2MFCV Dender EH
2025-10-01€1MFCV Dender EH
2025-12-10€750kFCV Dender EH
2026-03-13€500kFCV Dender EH
2026-06-04€500kFCV Dender EH

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.088

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 9% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 16% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hrncar appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).