FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Alexander

Bah

RBDenmark · SL Benfica

№ 452607Established €5.3M +0.28

Player dossierLiga Portugal

AlexanderBah

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
SL Benfica
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Denmark
Age
28
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bah at €7M. Model A, which never saw Bah during training, estimates €5.3M: the market value is 32% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.32. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.28A €5.3M▲ +0.88B €2.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
36
Minutes
2,493
Goals
3
Assists
3
Started
30/36
Min / app
69
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bah…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7MModel A €5.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Alexander Bah's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 89th, Assists per 90 80th, Minutes, two years 43rd, Starts 52nd, Minutes, last 365 days 11th, European club minutes 84th89thGoals80thAssists43rdMinutes52ndStarts11thRecent84thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.11 this player0.03 defender median89th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2016
Peak
€14M
Jun 2023
Model target
€7M
May 2026
Valuations
24
3 club changes
May 2026€7MSL BenficaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €7M, SL Benfica. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-12€50kHB Köge
2016-12-12€150kHB Köge
2017-06-21€250kHB Köge
2017-12-18€300kHB Köge
2018-06-07€350kHB Köge
2018-12-21€450kSönderjyskE
2019-06-08€600kSönderjyskE
2019-12-22€600kSönderjyskE
2020-04-08€475kSönderjyskE
2020-07-31€700kSönderjyskE
2020-12-23€2.5MSönderjyskE
2021-04-19€3MSK Slavia Prague
2021-06-25€4MSK Slavia Prague
2021-12-26€6MSK Slavia Prague
2022-06-22€7MSK Slavia Prague
2022-11-01€8MSL Benfica
2023-06-16€14MSL Benfica
2023-12-27€14MSL Benfica
2024-06-06€13MSL Benfica
2024-12-19€14MSL Benfica
2025-03-31€12MSL Benfica
2025-05-30€10MSL Benfica
2025-12-18€9MSL Benfica
2026-05-28€7MSL Benfica

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.281

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 82% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 76% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bah appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).