FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Gabriel

Silva

LWBrazil · CD Santa Clara

№ 627224Established €5.4M +0.26

Player dossierLiga Portugal

GabrielSilva

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
CD Santa Clara
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Brazil
Age
24
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Silva at €7M. Model A, which never saw Silva during training, estimates €5.4M: the market value is 30% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.26A €5.4M▲ +0.04B €6.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
70
Minutes
5,579
Goals
15
Assists
5
Started
63/70
Min / app
80
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Silva…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7MModel A €5.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Gabriel Silva's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 46th, Assists per 90 24th, Minutes, two years 95th, Starts 94th, Minutes, last 365 days 91st, European club minutes 67th46thGoals24thAssists95thMinutes94thStarts91stRecent67thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,579 this player2,242 attacker median95th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€750k
Sept 2020
Peak
€7M
May 2026
Model target
€7M
May 2026
Valuations
13
1 club change
May 2026€7MCD Santa ClaraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €7M, CD Santa Clara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-09-09€750kUnknown
2021-02-09€900kUnknown
2021-05-28€900kUnknown
2022-04-06€2.5MUnknown
2022-11-01€2.5MCD Santa Clara
2023-06-16€2.5MCD Santa Clara
2023-12-14€2MCD Santa Clara
2024-06-20€1.7MCD Santa Clara
2024-12-19€2.5MCD Santa Clara
2025-03-31€3MCD Santa Clara
2025-05-30€5MCD Santa Clara
2025-12-18€4MCD Santa Clara
2026-05-28€7MCD Santa Clara

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.263

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 82% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 70% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Silva appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).