FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Warren

O'Hora

CBIreland · Hibernian FC

№ 449020Emerging €1.5M −1.02

Player dossierPremiership

WarrenO'Hora

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Hibernian FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Ireland
Age
27
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values O'Hora at €550k. Model A, which never saw O'Hora during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 64% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.76. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.02A €1.5M▼ −1.38B €2.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
5,122
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
57/60
Min / app
85
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for O'Hora…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €550k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €550kModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Warren O'Hora's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 38th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 85th, Starts 84th, Minutes, last 365 days 83rd, European club minutes 75th38thGoals17thAssists85thMinutes84thStarts83rdRecent75thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,122 this player2,860 defender median85th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Jul 2022
Peak
€600k
Jul 2022
Model target
€550k
May 2026
Valuations
9
1 club change
May 2026€550kHibernian FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €550k, Hibernian FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-07-29€600kMilton Keynes Dons
2023-04-05€600kMilton Keynes Dons
2023-06-09€400kMilton Keynes Dons
2023-12-29€400kMilton Keynes Dons
2024-06-27€350kMilton Keynes Dons
2024-12-03€350kHibernian FC
2025-06-17€500kHibernian FC
2025-12-10€550kHibernian FC
2026-05-20€550kHibernian FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.015

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 62% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€550kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 22% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€550kSee them in the Explorer →

Where O'Hora appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).