FairValue

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Lorenzo De

Silvestri

RBItaly · Bologna FC 1909

№ 33571Emerging €279k +0.77

Player dossierSerie A

Lorenzo DeSilvestri

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Bologna FC 1909
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
38
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Silvestri at €600k. Model A, which never saw Silvestri during training, estimates €279k: the market value is 115% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €140k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.77A €279k▲ +1.46B €140k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
1,646
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
20/31
Min / app
53
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Silvestri…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €279k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Lorenzo De Silvestri's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 26th, Starts 20th, Minutes, last 365 days 11th, European club minutes 30th67thGoals17thAssists26thMinutes20thStarts11thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.05 this player0.03 defender median67th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2005
Peak
€6M
Jul 2010
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
41
5 club changes
May 2026€600kBologna FC 1909Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, Bologna FC 1909. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2005-08-05€100kLazio U19
2006-04-02€150kLazio U19
2007-08-30€1MSS Lazio
2008-02-09€2.8MSS Lazio
2008-07-03€3.7MSS Lazio
2009-02-03€3.2MSS Lazio
2010-01-27€4.5MACF Fiorentina
2010-07-19€6MACF Fiorentina
2011-06-21€5MACF Fiorentina
2012-01-11€4.5MACF Fiorentina
2012-06-08€4MACF Fiorentina
2013-01-14€3MUC Sampdoria
2013-06-19€3MUC Sampdoria
2014-01-07€3.5MUC Sampdoria
2014-07-01€4MUC Sampdoria
2015-01-07€5MUC Sampdoria
2015-07-01€6MUC Sampdoria
2016-01-04€5MUC Sampdoria
2016-07-15€5MUC Sampdoria
2017-01-02€4MTorino FC
2017-06-08€3.5MTorino FC
2017-12-29€3.5MTorino FC
2018-06-07€4MTorino FC
2018-12-20€4MTorino FC
2019-06-06€4MTorino FC
2019-12-12€3.5MTorino FC
2020-04-08€2.8MTorino FC
2020-08-25€2.5MTorino FC
2020-12-29€2MBologna FC 1909
2021-06-03€1.5MBologna FC 1909
2021-12-28€1.5MBologna FC 1909
2022-06-07€1.5MBologna FC 1909
2022-11-11€900kBologna FC 1909
2023-03-21€600kBologna FC 1909
2023-06-15€400kBologna FC 1909
2023-12-20€400kBologna FC 1909
2024-06-05€400kBologna FC 1909
2024-12-18€400kBologna FC 1909
2025-06-17€800kBologna FC 1909
2025-12-23€700kBologna FC 1909
2026-05-29€600kBologna FC 1909

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.767

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 3% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 22% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Silvestri appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).