FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Harry

Milne

LBScotland · Heart of Midlothian FC

№ 411267Emerging €1.2M −0.76

Player dossierPremiership

HarryMilne

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Heart of Midlothian FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
29
Height
183 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Milne at €550k. Model A, which never saw Milne during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 53% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €816k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.76A €1.2M▼ −0.39B €816k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
2,699
Goals
1
Assists
6
Started
30/31
Min / app
87
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Milne…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €550k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €550kModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Harry Milne's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 52nd, Assists per 90 95th, Minutes, two years 47th, Starts 89th, Minutes, last 365 days 75th, European club minutes 30th52ndGoals95thAssists47thMinutes89thStarts75thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.20 this player0.04 defender median95th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€175k
Sept 2022
Peak
€550k
Dec 2025
Model target
€550k
May 2026
Valuations
11
1 club change
May 2026€550kHeart of Midlothian FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €550k, Heart of Midlothian FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-09-06€175kPartick Thistle FC
2022-12-13€225kPartick Thistle FC
2023-06-26€250kPartick Thistle FC
2023-12-05€250kPartick Thistle FC
2024-06-21€250kPartick Thistle FC
2024-12-03€275kPartick Thistle FC
2025-03-12€300kHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-06-17€250kHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-10-08€500kHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-12-10€550kHeart of Midlothian FC
2026-05-20€550kHeart of Midlothian FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.756

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 62% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€550kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 22% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€550kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Milne appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).