FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Maxence Lacroix

Maxence

Lacroix

CBFrance · Crystal Palace

№ 434224World Class €34.3M +0.38

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MaxenceLacroix

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Crystal Palace
League
Premier League
Nationality
France
Age
26
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lacroix at €50M. Model A, which never saw Lacroix during training, estimates €34.3M: the market value is 46% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.46. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €18M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.38A €34.3M▲ +1.02B €18M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
82
Minutes
7,241
Goals
2
Assists
3
Started
82/82
Min / app
88
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lacroix…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €50MModel A €34.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Maxence Lacroix's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 49th, Minutes, two years 98th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 97th, European club minutes 63rd44thGoals49thAssists98thMinutes97thStarts97thRecent63rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,241 this player2,860 defender median98th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jan 2019
Peak
€50M
Jun 2026
Model target
€50M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
2 club changes
Jun 2026€50MCrystal PalaceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €50M, Crystal Palace. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-08€200kFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2019-06-27€300kFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2019-09-30€700kFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2020-01-06€800kFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2020-04-08€725kFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2020-08-14€1MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2020-09-16€4MVfL Wolfsburg
2020-11-26€8MVfL Wolfsburg
2021-02-10€17MVfL Wolfsburg
2021-03-31€25MVfL Wolfsburg
2021-06-09€28MVfL Wolfsburg
2021-12-22€25MVfL Wolfsburg
2022-03-24€20MVfL Wolfsburg
2022-06-09€20MVfL Wolfsburg
2022-11-09€20MVfL Wolfsburg
2023-06-22€17MVfL Wolfsburg
2023-12-14€20MVfL Wolfsburg
2024-05-29€20MVfL Wolfsburg
2024-12-16€20MCrystal Palace
2025-03-18€22MCrystal Palace
2025-05-30€25MCrystal Palace
2025-10-17€32MCrystal Palace
2025-12-09€35MCrystal Palace
2026-03-09€40MCrystal Palace
2026-06-03€50MCrystal Palace

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.376

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 88% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 98% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lacroix appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).