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Victor

Nelsson

CBDenmark · Hellas Verona

№ 422951Established €4.3M +0.34

Player dossierSerie A

VictorNelsson

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Hellas Verona
League
Serie A
Nationality
Denmark
Age
27
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nelsson at €6M. Model A, which never saw Nelsson during training, estimates €4.3M: the market value is 40% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.40. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.34A €4.3M▼ −0.02B €6.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
4,041
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
43/60
Min / app
67
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nelsson…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €4.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Victor Nelsson's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 70th, Starts 29th, Minutes, last 365 days 94th, European club minutes 68th18thGoals17thAssists70thMinutes29thStarts94thRecent68thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,316 this player1,687 defender median94th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€350k
Dec 2016
Peak
€19M
Sept 2023
Model target
€6M
May 2026
Valuations
29
4 club changes
May 2026€6MHellas VeronaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €6M, Hellas Verona. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-12-12€350kFC Nordsjaelland
2017-06-21€350kFC Nordsjaelland
2017-12-18€500kFC Nordsjaelland
2018-06-02€700kFC Nordsjaelland
2018-12-21€1.3MFC Nordsjaelland
2019-06-08€3MFC Nordsjaelland
2019-12-22€5MFC Copenhagen
2020-04-08€4.5MFC Copenhagen
2020-07-31€4.5MFC Copenhagen
2020-12-23€3MFC Copenhagen
2021-06-04€3.5MFC Copenhagen
2021-10-12€7MGalatasaray
2022-01-04€8.5MGalatasaray
2022-03-31€10MGalatasaray
2022-06-01€12MGalatasaray
2022-09-13€14MGalatasaray
2022-10-27€14MGalatasaray
2023-03-14€16.5MGalatasaray
2023-06-08€18MGalatasaray
2023-09-27€19MGalatasaray
2023-12-21€15MGalatasaray
2024-03-15€15MGalatasaray
2024-05-31€17MGalatasaray
2024-10-04€16MGalatasaray
2024-12-23€14MGalatasaray
2025-06-17€10MAS Roma
2025-10-07€9MHellas Verona
2025-12-23€7.5MHellas Verona
2026-05-29€6MHellas Verona

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.335

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 50% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 73% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nelsson appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).