Koki
Machida
CBJapan · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Player dossierBundesliga
KokiMachida
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Japan
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 190 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Machida at €6M. Model A, which never saw Machida during training, estimates €4.3M: the market value is 40% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.40. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 38
- Minutes
- 2,947
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 34/38
- Min / app
- 78
- Cards
- 8Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Machida…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
28% this player0% defender median94th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Feb 2016
- Peak
- €11M
- Jun 2025
- Model target
- €6M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 23
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €6M, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-02-25 | €50k | Kashima Antlers |
| 2017-03-25 | €75k | Kashima Antlers |
| 2018-01-05 | €75k | Kashima Antlers |
| 2019-01-05 | €200k | Kashima Antlers |
| 2019-06-27 | €300k | Kashima Antlers |
| 2019-12-28 | €700k | Kashima Antlers |
| 2020-04-08 | €550k | Kashima Antlers |
| 2021-01-29 | €700k | Kashima Antlers |
| 2021-06-29 | €850k | Kashima Antlers |
| 2022-01-14 | €1M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2022-04-12 | €1M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2022-05-26 | €1.5M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2022-11-04 | €1.5M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2023-06-09 | €2M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2023-10-23 | €3M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2023-12-19 | €6M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2024-03-22 | €8M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2024-06-04 | €10M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2024-12-11 | €10M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2025-06-12 | €11M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2025-10-14 | €7M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2025-12-19 | €7M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2026-05-27 | €6M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.335
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 53% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 73% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Machida appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SabitzerCMBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€6M
- FlekkenGKBayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga€6M
- AndrichDMBayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga€6M
- PoschCB1.FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga€6M
- RüdigerCBReal Madrid · defenders€6M
- DigneLBAston Villa · defenders€6M
- RomagnoliCBSS Lazio · defenders€6M
- SemedoRBFenerbahce · defenders€6M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).