FairValue

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Portrait of Álvaro Morata

Álvaro

Morata

CFSpain · Como 1907

№ 128223Established €3.6M +0.52

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

ÁlvaroMorata

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Como 1907
League
Serie A
Nationality
Spain
Age
33
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Morata at €6M. Model A, which never saw Morata during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 69% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.69. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.52A €3.6M▲ +1.24B €1.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
68
Minutes
3,350
Goals
13
Assists
7
Started
37/68
Min / app
49
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Morata…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €3.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Álvaro Morata's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 66th, Minutes, two years 72nd, Starts 42nd, Minutes, last 365 days 38th, European club minutes 77th67thGoals66thAssists72ndMinutes42ndStarts38thRecent77thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

14% this player0% attacker median77th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€6M
Aug 2012
Peak
€65M
Jan 2018
Model target
€6M
May 2026
Valuations
39
10 club changes
May 2026€6MComo 1907Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €6M, Como 1907. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-08-17€6MReal Madrid Castilla
2013-01-10€6MReal Madrid Castilla
2013-05-09€7.5MReal Madrid Castilla
2013-06-12€9MReal Madrid Castilla
2013-10-21€12MReal Madrid
2014-01-23€12MReal Madrid
2014-07-20€18MJuventus FC
2015-01-07€18MJuventus FC
2015-07-01€25MJuventus FC
2016-01-04€23.5MJuventus FC
2016-04-01€25MJuventus FC
2016-06-01€30MJuventus FC
2016-07-15€40MReal Madrid
2017-01-24€40MReal Madrid
2017-06-05€40MReal Madrid
2017-08-16€50MChelsea FC
2018-01-02€65MChelsea FC
2018-05-28€65MChelsea FC
2018-10-17€60MChelsea FC
2018-12-19€50MChelsea FC
2019-06-11€50MAtlético de Madrid
2019-12-20€50MAtlético de Madrid
2020-03-05€45MAtlético de Madrid
2020-04-08€36MAtlético de Madrid
2020-10-29€40MJuventus FC
2020-12-29€50MJuventus FC
2021-05-31€45MJuventus FC
2021-12-28€35MJuventus FC
2022-03-15€30MJuventus FC
2022-06-07€25MJuventus FC
2022-11-07€25MAtlético de Madrid
2023-06-13€20MAtlético de Madrid
2023-12-22€20MAtlético de Madrid
2024-06-07€16MAtlético de Madrid
2024-12-18€13MAC Milan
2025-03-20€13MGalatasaray
2025-06-18€11MGalatasaray
2025-12-23€8MComo 1907
2026-05-29€6MComo 1907

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.522

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 50% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 68% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Morata appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).