FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Uros

Racic

DMSerbia · Aris Thessaloniki

№ 417575Established €1.4M +0.78

Player dossierSuper League

UrosRacic

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Aris Thessaloniki
League
Super League
Nationality
Serbia
Age
28
Height
193 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Racic at €3M. Model A, which never saw Racic during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 118% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.78A €1.4M▲ +0.37B €2.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
45
Minutes
3,151
Goals
6
Assists
2
Started
36/45
Min / app
70
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Racic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €1.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Uros Racic's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 77th, Assists per 90 32nd, Minutes, two years 59th, Starts 70th, Minutes, last 365 days 76th, European club minutes 66th77thGoals32ndAssists59thMinutes70thStarts76thRecent66thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.17 this player0.08 midfielder median77th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Dec 2016
Peak
€10M
Jan 2021
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
9 club changes
Jun 2026€3MAris ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Aris Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-12-18€200kRed Star Belgrade
2017-05-04€300kRed Star Belgrade
2018-01-10€1MRed Star Belgrade
2018-07-12€2MValencia CF
2019-02-19€2MCD Tenerife
2019-06-29€5MCD Tenerife
2019-10-11€2.5MFC Famalicão
2019-12-30€2.5MFC Famalicão
2020-04-08€2.3MFC Famalicão
2020-08-17€6MValencia CF
2020-10-08€7.5MValencia CF
2021-01-05€10MValencia CF
2021-06-10€10MValencia CF
2021-12-30€8MValencia CF
2022-06-03€7MValencia CF
2022-11-01€6.5MSC Braga
2023-06-16€6.5MSC Braga
2023-10-11€5MUS Sassuolo
2023-12-20€4MUS Sassuolo
2024-03-12€3MUS Sassuolo
2024-06-05€2.5MUS Sassuolo
2024-12-30€2.5MWest Bromwich Albion
2025-05-30€3.5MSC Braga
2025-09-23€3MAris Thessaloniki
2025-12-12€3MAris Thessaloniki
2026-06-04€3MAris Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.777

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 86% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 56% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Racic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).