FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Thomas

Strakosha

GKAlbania · AEK Athens

№ 222209Established €2.6M +0.14

Player dossierSuper League

ThomasStrakosha

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
AEK Athens
League
Super League
Nationality
Albania
Age
31
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Strakosha at €3M. Model A, which never saw Strakosha during training, estimates €2.6M: the market value is 15% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.14A €2.6M▲ +0.78B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
61
Minutes
5,520
Started
61/61
Min / app
90
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Strakosha…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €2.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Thomas Strakosha's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 82nd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 76th, European club minutes 82nd82ndMinutes62ndStarts76thRecent82ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,520 this player2,790 goalkeeper median82nd percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Dec 2012
Peak
€25M
Dec 2019
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
38
5 club changes
Jun 2026€3MAEK AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, AEK Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-12-08€75kLazio U19
2013-06-19€300kSS Lazio
2014-01-07€300kSS Lazio
2014-07-01€300kSS Lazio
2015-01-07€300kSS Lazio
2015-07-01€300kSS Lazio
2015-12-28€350kUS Salernitana 1919
2016-06-13€300kUS Salernitana 1919
2016-10-14€1MSS Lazio
2017-01-02€1.4MSS Lazio
2017-03-28€2.5MSS Lazio
2017-06-08€4.5MSS Lazio
2017-12-29€13MSS Lazio
2018-03-24€20MSS Lazio
2018-06-07€20MSS Lazio
2018-12-20€20MSS Lazio
2019-06-06€20MSS Lazio
2019-12-12€25MSS Lazio
2020-04-08€20MSS Lazio
2020-08-25€25MSS Lazio
2020-12-29€20MSS Lazio
2021-03-23€18MSS Lazio
2021-06-03€14MSS Lazio
2021-10-14€7.5MSS Lazio
2021-12-28€7MSS Lazio
2022-06-07€7MSS Lazio
2022-09-15€5MBrentford FC
2022-11-03€5MBrentford FC
2023-03-16€4MBrentford FC
2023-06-20€3.5MBrentford FC
2023-12-19€3MBrentford FC
2024-05-27€3MBrentford FC
2024-09-26€2.5MAEK Athens
2024-12-18€2.5MAEK Athens
2025-05-23€2.5MAEK Athens
2025-12-12€2.5MAEK Athens
2026-03-06€3MAEK Athens
2026-06-04€3MAEK Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.142

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 86% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 68% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Strakosha appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).